The Gabonese public debt is expected to reach $15 billion by 2025, a new record for the CEMAC economy. This level, revealed after a marked exercise marred by fiscal tensions and increased recourse to regional markets, confirms the upward trajectory started several years ago. It places Libreville on an increasingly tight budgetary arbitrage imperative, in a context where petroleum revenues remain the key variable of public finances.

A Debt Trajectory That Raises Sustainability Questions

When expressed as a percentage of national wealth, the burden is now approaching the CEMAC community threshold of 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) set by the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). The Gabon, the fifth-largest economy in the sub-region, had once built its reputation on prudent management of macroeconomic ratios in the early 2000s. However, the situation has turned under the cumulative effect of the fall in oil prices since 2014, the sanitary crisis, and then the swelling of domestic debt held within local banks and on public bond markets of the Bank of Economic and Social Development of Central Africa (BEAC).

The current stock combines a major external component, mainly backed by eurobonds issued between 2013 and 2020, and an increasingly weighty domestic debt. Regular emissions of Treasury bonds and obligations on regional markets have allowed for monthly cash flow management, but at the cost of interest rates that weigh heavily on public expenditure. In concrete terms, each new borrowing round increases the average cost of the portfolio.

The Delicate Balancing Act of Transition Oligui Nguema

Since taking office in August 2023, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema has made fiscal balance restoration a key plank of his economic agenda. The Committee for Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) announced several debt audits, including those on accumulated payments to state suppliers and local governments. The objective is to identify litigious claims and reclassify authentic ones, freeing up funds for public investment.

The exercise remains constrained by the remittance schedule. Gabon must honor several eurobond repayment deadlines in the coming years, one of which arrives at maturity and whose refinancing poses a major challenge. Libreville has tested international markets in 2024 with a partial asset management operation, without resolving the underlying equation. The regained credibility among investors depends on transparency regarding the budget law and resumed formal dialogue with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Petroleum, Manganese, and Timber: Export Revenue Drivers

The Gabon’s ability to absorb this burden is closely tied to the performance of its export sectors. Petroleum remains the backbone of public revenues, with production oscillating around 200,000 barrels per day, in a structural decline. Manganese, for which Libreville is a world-leading producer through the Ogooué Mining Company (Comilog), a subsidiary of French Eramet Group, contributes increasingly to growth, driven by Asian demand. The timber processing sector, linked to the Nkok Economic Zone, completes the triad.

Authorities are also investing in accelerating infrastructure projects and renewable energy initiatives to support non-petroleum growth. The Transgabon project, a flagship, and several partnerships in hydropower must raise activity above 3% per annum, a necessary condition for stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Without this surge, Gabon risks seeing its sovereign rating deteriorate further, after several consecutive downgrades from international agencies.

The budget roadmap presented for 2026 will therefore need to reconcile fiscal discipline, mobilization of non-tax revenue streams, and targeted renegotiation of the stock. A tight balance is required but crucial for the country’s credibility on regional and international markets. According to Financial Afrik, this level reached in 2025 constitutes a major watch point for Gabon’s economic trajectory.

For Further Reading

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