Washington is weighing the possibility of expanding its military footprint in West Africa by targeting the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda-linked faction operating in Mali. The move comes nearly four years after France’s withdrawal from the country, leaving a security vacuum that jihadist groups have increasingly exploited.

While no final decision has been reached, internal deliberations within the Trump administration suggest growing support for direct strikes against the JNIM. Sebastian Gorka, counterterrorism advisor to the National Security Council, has emerged as a leading advocate for military intervention. However, other officials remain cautious, questioning whether such an operation would yield lasting results or merely escalate regional instability.

Should the proposal advance, Mali would become the eighth nation targeted by US airstrikes since Donald Trump’s second term began. The administration has so far refrained from confirming these plans, though officials have emphasized the need for African nations to bolster their counterterrorism capabilities by acquiring American defense technology and services.

The JNIM has grown into one of the most formidable armed groups in West Africa, originating in Mali but now extending operations across coastal states in the Sahel. Analysts warn that the group’s expanding influence is directly tied to the region’s deteriorating security landscape.

Potential pitfalls of a military intervention

Critics of the proposed strikes highlight multiple risks that could undermine long-term stability. Independent Sahel analyst Corinne Dufka cautions that targeting JNIM leaders might backfire by eliminating figures who could otherwise be engaged in de-radicalization efforts, thereby missing a chance to weaken one of the world’s most entrenched jihadist networks.

Historical precedents also raise doubts about the effectiveness of such measures. Despite a decade-long French military campaign in the region—followed by five years of Russian involvement—jihadist expansion has continued unabated. Some fear that US strikes could inadvertently empower rival factions, particularly the Islamic State in the Sahel, which has competed with JNIM for dominance.

Another concern involves potential tensions with Russian forces already active in Mali. Russia has marketed its military support to several African nations, including Guinea, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic, but outcomes have often fallen short of expectations. As one US official noted, Washington hopes African governments will recognize the limitations of relying on Russian security assistance.