A significant countdown has begun for the Cameroonian economy. The Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefaction unit moored off the coast of Kribi since 2018, is scheduled to depart national waters in July 2026. This exit marks the conclusion of the contract between its owner, Golar, and Cameroon’s National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH). The National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF), in its report assessing the first quarter of 2026, identifies this departure as a pivotal factor in the anticipated economic slowdown, alongside prevailing geopolitical tensions and the underperformance of several export-oriented sectors.

Detailed projections from the CNEF indicate that Cameroon’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by approximately 3.2% in 2026, a decrease from 3.5% recorded the previous year, followed by a further dip to 3.1% in 2027. A broader overview within the same document presents a slightly more optimistic trajectory, forecasting 3.3% then 3.2%. Under both scenarios, the underlying assessment remains consistent: the extractive sector will exert downward pressure on overall growth, contributing a negative 0.4 percentage points in each of the two fiscal years. Petroleum GDP, encompassing all hydrocarbon-related activities, is projected to fall by 16.1% in 2026 and by 18% in 2027.

LNG sector already facing decline before vessel’s exit

The impending departure of the Hilli Episeyo coincides with an already fragile market. Revenues generated from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reached CFAF 350.2 billion in 2025, down from CFAF 381 billion in 2024, CFAF 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of CFAF 622 billion in 2022. This represents an 8.1% year-on-year decline. This downward trend persisted into the beginning of the year: during the first quarter of 2026, Cameroon’s total exports dropped by 23.6% to CFAF 606.9 billion, with LNG exports specifically declining by 28.4% and crude oil exports by 14.4%.

Despite the decline, LNG still accounted for 11.4% of export revenues in 2025. The withdrawal of the floating factory vessel therefore deprives Yaoundé of a critical asset at a time when other key sectors are also losing momentum. Over the same period, sales of cocoa and its derivatives plummeted by 37.7%, timber by 11.5%, aluminum by 53.7%, and raw rubber by 16.7%. The combined effect of these sectoral setbacks significantly amplifies the potential impact of the upcoming gas shock.

Current account under pressure, delicate budget choices

Macroeconomic balances are poised to absorb a substantial shock. The CNEF projects a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, rising to 6.1% in 2027, compared to an estimated 3.2% in 2025. The budget deficit is expected to follow a similar upward trajectory, reaching 1.7% and then 2.1% of GDP. These projections also factor in a slowdown in global trade, increasing freight costs, and only moderate growth in public revenues.

Furthermore, rising global oil prices present a classic dilemma for the executive branch. Maintaining stable pump prices would necessitate increasing fuel subsidies, incurring an immediate budgetary cost. Conversely, adjusting retail prices upward would likely reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. The CNEF refrains from making a definitive recommendation but underscores the extremely limited room for maneuver available to the government.

Yoyo-Yolanda and new blocks: no immediate relief

SNH is actively pursuing a strategy to diversify its upstream portfolio, preparing for the post-Hilli Episeyo era. A central component of this strategy is the transboundary Yoyo-Yolanda field, shared with Equatorial Guinea, which boasts geological resources estimated at approximately 2,500 billion cubic feet and requires an investment nearing $4 billion. However, the project’s timeline remains contingent on finalizing technical and commercial agreements, securing necessary financing, and constructing dedicated infrastructure.

Concurrently, the state-owned company continues to award new exploration blocks within the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. Yet, entering into production sharing contract negotiations does not guarantee the discovery of commercially viable reserves or prompt production commencement. The primary risk lies in the duration of this transition period: the longer the interval between the floating factory vessel’s departure and the activation of new production capacities, the more entrenched the extractive sector’s negative contribution to Cameroon’s economic growth will become. As it stands, none of the announced initiatives are expected to offset the projected short-term decline in LNG exports.