How the unified force of the Sahel alliance could achieve its goals

Leaders from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are convening in Bamako for a two-day summit starting Monday, marking the second session of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) heads of state college. This gathering follows the AES’s founding summit in Niamey on July 6, 2024, and aims to assess progress, address security and diplomatic challenges, and appoint a new confederation president.

The meeting will review the implementation of the AES roadmap over its first year and focus on operationalizing its institutions. Regional and international stakes will also be on the agenda during the December 22-23 discussions.

Key achievements and ongoing challenges

According to the Malian government, the AES has made notable progress in its first year, ensuring the functioning of confederate bodies and strengthening coordination among member states. However, security threats persist, particularly from armed groups operating across borders, as evidenced by the JNIM blockade affecting fuel supplies in Mali.

On the eve of the summit, Malian Transition President and AES Confederation President, General Assimi Goïta, officially launched the Unified Force of the AES (FU-AES) in Bamako. This force, composed of 5,000 soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, will be led by General Daouda Traoré of Burkina Faso.

What is the unified force of the Sahel?

The AES Unified Force was created to address persistent security challenges, including armed attacks, border instability, and the cross-border mobility of militant groups. The force aims to enhance military coordination, improve intelligence sharing, and synchronize operations to reduce risks in vulnerable border areas.

Defense Minister Sadio Camara emphasized that the force represents a strategic collaboration grounded in Sahelian values of solidarity and dignity, stating, « Peace, security, and sovereignty cannot be delegated. » The establishment of this force marks an irreversible commitment by the three AES member states.

How could the unified force achieve its objectives?

According to Fiacre Vidjenagninou, Senior Researcher at the Behanzin Institute in Cotonou, and Senior Associate Researcher at the Egmont Institute in Brussels, the FU-AES must go beyond symbolic announcements to deliver tangible results on the ground. He highlights several critical factors for success:

• Concentrated effort: Focus on areas where enemy groups are most structured.
• Intelligence-to-action mechanism: Collect, fuse, and act on intelligence rapidly while maintaining presence in the territory.
• Sustained control: Secure roads, protect markets and villages, and reassure populations to prevent militant groups from regaining ground.

The expert warns that a purely military approach is insufficient without addressing local governance issues, such as justice, land conflicts, and community violence. « A force can win the battle, but without minimal governance, it cannot achieve stabilization, » he explains.

Strategic coordination and phased expansion

Vidjenagninou advises a cautious, phased approach to expansion. Starting with successful collaboration among the three founding members—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—before integrating additional countries. This gradual process would allow for trust-building and operational alignment.

He also stresses the importance of cross-border pursuits, reinforcing coordination mechanisms, and establishing formalized integration only after proven success in smaller-scale operations.

Operational and institutional priorities

The AES Unified Force’s credibility hinges on its ability to demonstrate effective command structures, sustained territorial control, and tangible benefits for local populations. During the Bamako summit, leaders will meet with the force’s command to review progress and address operational challenges.

The summit will also formalize the launch of the AES Television (headquartered in Bamako) and the radio station Daandè Liptako, the Voice of Liptako (based in Ouagadougou). Discussions will further explore the establishment of the Confederate Investment and Development Bank (BCID), with an initial capital of 500 billion CFA francs.

The AES emerged following coups in Mali (August 2020), Burkina Faso (September 2022), and Niger (July 2023). In response to sanctions and threats of military intervention from the ECOWAS, the three nations withdrew from the regional bloc and formed the AES in September 2023, officially establishing the confederation on July 6, 2024.

Looking ahead

The AES Unified Force represents a pivotal political and strategic shift for the Sahel. Its success will depend on operational effectiveness, sustained coordination, and delivering tangible security and governance improvements for the region’s populations.