In Mali, the jihadist coalition Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has escalated its campaign of economic warfare against Bamako. Over the weekend, militants torched at least ten passenger buses along the Ségou–Bamako corridor, the main supply route into the capital from eastern regions. Simultaneously, attackers struck power infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region, cutting off a critical artery of Mali’s energy network. While government forces continue counteroffensives across multiple fronts, the country’s economic lifelines remain under severe strain.

Manantali emerges as a new front in the attrition battle

The Manantali dam, operated jointly by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal under the Senegal River Basin Development Authority (OMVS), stands as a keystone of West Africa’s power-sharing system. By disabling its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer targeting only military convoys—it is striking at the nerve center of urban life. Power outages ripple through government ministries, markets, and factories, forcing businesses to shutter and hospitals to rely on backup generators. The militants’ calculus is clear: suffocate the capital’s economy and erode public confidence in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta.

This push follows weeks of coordinated attacks on fuel shipments arriving from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. JNIM appears determined to weaponize shortages, betting that a prolonged energy crisis will turn Malians against the authorities in Bamako. Regions once considered relatively safe, including the capital’s outskirts, now find themselves locked in a grinding siege.

Army counters with risky logistics gambits

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) insist they are maintaining pressure through ground and air operations across multiple zones. In recent days, heavily escorted fuel tankers have reached Bamako, briefly easing the pressure on gas stations. Yet these gains are fragile—each convoy demands vast resources and offers only temporary relief. The broader challenge of securing Mali’s highways remains daunting, with insurgents ambushing supply lines and torching bridges at will.

The military faces a dual threat. In western and central Mali, JNIM’s sabotage raids have crippled transport and energy hubs. In the far north, around Kidal, a tense stalemate persists with rebel factions of the Permanent Strategic Framework, raising the specter of fresh clashes. With dwindling manpower and equipment, the state’s capacity to reverse the tide appears limited.

Regional fallout threatens shared infrastructure

The blockade’s ripple effects extend beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies—especially Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are feeling the squeeze as trade corridors dry up. Dakar and Abidjan’s ports are reporting congestion, as shipments bound for the Sahel hinterland stall. The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to craft a unified response to the jihadists’ economic warfare campaign.

The Manantali strikes also raise urgent questions about transboundary infrastructure. Further damage could disrupt electricity exports to Senegal and Mauritania, transforming a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. International partners must now weigh support for Bamako’s sovereignty against the need to protect shared critical assets.

On the ground, the contrast is stark: official statements trumpet tactical victories, yet Bamako’s streets tell another story. The capital is straining under rolling blackouts and fuel queues. JNIM’s strategy has evolved from holding territory to strangling a state. Renewed fighting is expected in the coming days, particularly around Kidal, as the militants probe for new weak points in the government’s defenses.