In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jnim—a jihadist faction linked to al-Qaïda—has reached a critical juncture. Over the past weekend, at least a dozen buses were set ablaze along the Ségou-Bamako corridor, a vital supply route connecting the capital to the country’s eastern regions. Simultaneously, key electrical infrastructure connected to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in Kayes was deliberately targeted and destroyed. While Malian armed forces continue counteroffensives across multiple fronts, they have yet to break the economic stranglehold tightening around Bamako.

Manantali: a strategic target in a war of attrition

The assault on Manantali is far from incidental. The dam, jointly managed by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal under the Organisation for the Development of the Senegal River (OMVS), serves as a cornerstone of Mali’s electrical grid. By sabotaging its transmission lines, Jnim is no longer merely challenging security forces—it is striking at the heart of urban economic stability. Power outages trigger immediate disruptions in public services, commerce, and industrial operations, crippling daily life in the capital.

This tactic is part of a broader campaign unfolding over recent weeks, characterized by systematic attacks on fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public confidence in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from direct conflict, now stands at the epicenter of a grinding battle for control.

Army’s countermeasures and fragile respite

The Malian military reports ongoing ground and air operations across several regions. Military escorts have enabled hundreds of tanker trucks to reach Bamako in recent days, temporarily easing the pressure on gas stations under siege. Yet this logistical lifeline remains tenuous. Each convoy demands significant resources, and the sustained protection of national highways appears increasingly unattainable in the short term.

The Armed Forces of Mali (FAMa) are caught in a pincer movement. In western and central Mali, Jnim intensifies ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. Farther north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain frozen in a tense stalemate, with renewed clashes likely against rebels of the Permanent Strategic Framework. Bamako now navigates two distinct battlefields, straining already depleted human and material resources.

A regional crisis deepens

The blockade’s ripple effects extend far beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies, particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire, watch with growing alarm as West African trade corridors deteriorate. Slowing goods flow impacts ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a substantial share of trade flows toward the Sahel hinterland. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to formulate an effective coordinated response to the economic warfare waged by jihadist groups.

The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared OMVS infrastructure. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supplies to Senegal and Mauritania, transforming a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners, including donors and military suppliers, face a delicate balancing act—supporting Bamako’s sovereignty claims while safeguarding critical transboundary infrastructure.

On the ground, the disparity between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a besieged capital underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. Jnim is no longer merely contesting territory; it is systematically suffocating a state at its core.