The Sahel has vanished from global headlines, but this silence masks a worsening crisis. While the world’s focus shifted to conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the decade-long instability in the Sahel has spiraled into one of the most severe security and humanitarian emergencies on the continent.

Military regimes that seized power through recent coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—collectively known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—vowed to eradicate jihadist violence. Yet their promises remain unfulfilled. Instead, extremist groups have gained ground, launching deadly attacks on civilians and military targets across the region. The Sahel is now the world’s most violence-stricken area by jihadist activity, with fatalities tripling since 2021.

Compounding the crisis, these governments have clamped down on dissent, silencing journalists, suppressing civil society, and extending their rule indefinitely. The European Union and its member states face a critical choice: disengage from the region or re-engage strategically to prevent further destabilization.

rising jihadist violence and collapsing state control

In 2024, the Sahel surpassed all other regions in jihadist-related deaths, with over 11,200 fatalities. This staggering toll includes 2,430 civilians killed by national security forces and Russian Wagner Group mercenaries—a grim statistic revealing that state actors may now pose a greater threat to civilians than the armed groups themselves.

The situation varies across the AES countries, but the trend is unmistakable:

• Mali: Since the expulsion of the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) in 2023, the government has struggled to maintain control. In 2024, jihadist groups launched coordinated attacks on military and government sites in Bamako, including an assault on the presidential plane. Civilian massacres, such as one during a wedding in Mopti, continue unabated, while retaliatory airstrikes have killed dozens more.
• Burkina Faso: The military has lost control over 60% of its territory, with jihadist presence reported in 11 of 13 regions. The JNIM (affiliated with Al-Qaeda) carried out the deadliest attack in the country’s history in Barsalogho, killing between 130 and 600 civilians. State forces, meanwhile, have been accused of extrajudicial killings, including the execution of 223 villagers in February 2024. The regime’s decision to arm civilian militias—Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP)—has deepened ethnic tensions and fueled a cycle of retaliation.
• Niger: Though initially more stable, the country has seen a surge in jihadist attacks since the 2023 coup. Military operations have escalated, yet civilian casualties have risen dramatically. In March 2025, an attack on a mosque killed 44 people, underscoring the growing lethality of extremist groups.

All three countries have adopted militarized responses, but their strategies differ sharply. Mali relies on Russian-backed Wagner forces to combat both jihadists and separatist groups. Burkina Faso has prioritized arming civilians, inadvertently empowering local militias that now operate with near-impunity. Niger, while less reliant on foreign mercenaries, has seen a rise in Islamic State-affiliated attacks, particularly along its borders with Mali and Burkina Faso.

authoritarian drift: silencing dissent to mask failure

Unable to assert control over their territories, the AES regimes have turned to suppressing information. Independent media outlets—including RFI, France 24, and Jeune Afrique—have been banned or suspended. Journalists face arbitrary arrests, forced conscription, or exile. Civil society organizations and opposition parties have been dismantled, with leaders detained or forced into silence.

In Mali, the government has revoked broadcast licenses, expelled UN human rights officials, and silenced critical voices under the guise of counterterrorism. Burkina Faso has expelled foreign journalists and labeled exiled critics as terrorists. Niger has detained opposition figures, including former President Mohamed Bazoum, and restricted foreign travel for journalists and researchers.

These measures are not just about controlling the narrative—they reflect a desperate attempt to obscure the regimes’ inability to provide security or governance. By manipulating information, they hope to maintain a facade of legitimacy despite mounting evidence of failure.

prolonged transitions: a recipe for permanent rule

The military juntas in all three countries have systematically delayed elections and rewritten constitutions to extend their tenure. In Mali, the junta leader Colonel Assimi Goïta promoted himself to army general and secured a transition period lasting until 2029. Burkina Faso’s Captain Ibrahim Traoré followed suit, extending his rule to at least 2029. In Niger, General Abdourahamane Tchiani swore in as president for a five-year term in March 2025 after a sham national dialogue.

These prolonged transitions are not accidental—they are a deliberate strategy to consolidate power and resist democratic accountability. By breaking away from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and seeking new alliances (including with Russia), the AES regimes are reshaping regional politics on their own terms.

a looming humanitarian catastrophe

The Sahel’s crises extend beyond security. Over 52.7 million people in West Africa are projected to face acute food insecurity between June and August 2025, while 3.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled their homes in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. The withdrawal of Western military support and aid organizations has left millions without protection or assistance.

The Sahel’s instability is not a distant concern—it poses direct risks to Europe. Jihadist groups, already operating across borders, could exploit the power vacuums to expand their influence. The EU must reassess its engagement, balancing strategic interests with the urgent need to support civilian populations.

While the international community’s attention has shifted elsewhere, the Sahel’s crises demand renewed focus. The silence is not stability—it is a ticking time bomb.