Ousmane Sonko, Prime Minister of Senegal, has shifted from caution to confrontation. Addressing supporters and the public, the Pastef leader has intensified criticism of political rivals and even allies within the ruling coalition. This shift occurs amid conflicting interpretations of the power dynamics between the head of government and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Observers in Dakar and beyond are closely monitoring the evolving balance of power within the party that secured victory in the March 2024 elections.

Consolidating political influence in Dakar

Sonko’s recent public statements mark a departure from the measured approach he adopted in the early months of his tenure. He is openly challenging both remnants of the former regime and civil society figures, accusing them of covert maneuvers. Analysts suggest this strategy aims to reclaim media attention and reinforce his dominance within the ruling coalition.

The Prime Minister is primarily targeting his militant base. Despite being dissolved and later reinstated before the presidential election, Pastef retains significant political capital, particularly in urban centers and among young voters. By reviving the rhetoric of systemic change, Sonko seeks to strengthen his legitimacy, reinforced by the party’s strong performance in the November 2024 legislative elections, which solidified its control over the National Assembly.

Internal party fractures resurface

Sonko’s public push comes at a sensitive moment. Several of his closest allies, once seen as pillars of the Pastef project, were excluded from key government positions and strategic administrative roles. This marginalization has fueled internal dissatisfaction, with some party members accusing the administration of diluting the movement’s original vision in favor of presidential compromises they consider too accommodating to established interests.

While tensions remain subdued, they are palpable. Longtime party figures, who have largely stayed in the background since the party took power, see their influence erode as technocrats aligned with the presidency take center stage. By addressing supporters directly, Sonko is not only reassuring disillusioned members but also sending a clear message to the presidential palace.

Leadership rivalry with regional implications

The quiet power struggle between the Prime Minister’s office and the presidency is drawing attention from West African diplomats. Senegal plays a stabilizing role in a region grappling with Sahel instability and the ongoing restructuring of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Any fracture at the top of the Senegalese government could impact regional diplomacy, particularly in mediation efforts with the military-led governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

For investors and development partners, the clarity of the executive team’s communication is critical. Ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over debt sustainability—following revelations about the precarious state of public finances inherited from the previous administration—require a unified government stance. However, Sonko’s public statements, perceived as personal assertions, risk clouding the official narrative on fiscal reforms and the structural adjustments outlined in the Senegal 2050 roadmap.

Despite these challenges, Sonko holds significant advantages. His parliamentary majority, appeal among voters under 30, and control over the party apparatus give him an unusual level of autonomy for a head of government. The key question now is whether this rhetorical offensive signals an impending reshuffle, a shift in policy direction, or simply a consolidation of his authority within his own political movement.