A swift turn of events has gripped Senegal’s political scene with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s recent dismissal of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. This significant rupture had become almost inevitable over time, fueled by escalating political tensions and increasingly overt disagreements between the two leading figures of the executive branch in the Land of Teranga.

Following this development, Malick Ndiaye, the President of the National Assembly, announced his resignation from the parliamentary leadership. He stated his intention to remain a Member of Parliament, a move widely perceived as a pre-planned scenario designed to pave the way for the former Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, to reclaim his seat and potentially assume a new role within the national representation.

The political divide deepens

The Parliament is scheduled to convene in an extraordinary session on May 26 to elect its new president, a decision that will shape Senegal’s political future. All indications suggest that, barring an unforeseen upheaval, Ousmane Sonko, the former Mayor of Ziguinchor, who was removed from the premiership under known circumstances, is poised to take the helm of the legislative body. This strategic position would enable him to continue his direct political confrontation with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye.

The crucial question now is: how far will this political confrontation extend between these two former allies? This query gains further weight considering that beyond the former National Assembly President’s resignation, which appears to be an act of loyalty toward Sonko, Ousmane Sonko is expected to face little difficulty in securing the top parliamentary post, should he desire it. The ruling Pastef party (African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics, and Fraternity), of which Sonko remains the prominent figure, holds a substantial majority with 130 out of 165 deputies in Parliament.

This highlights the immense importance of Tuesday’s session, which offers the former Prime Minister a clear path to remain deeply entrenched in the political arena and within the highest echelons of state decision-making by becoming the head of Parliament. It is a highly strategic role, especially in this context where a definitive split seems to have occurred between the Thiès native and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who is reportedly driven by a desire to emerge from his former mentor’s shadow and assert his own presidential authority.

Ousmane Sonko’s potential for obstruction

Nevertheless, in this clash of ambitions between former comrades who have ascended to the pinnacle of state power, Senegal faces the risk of an institutional crisis. This is particularly true if, as the scenario appears to unfold, Ousmane Sonko is indeed elected President of the National Assembly following the May 26 session. Such an outcome would elevate him to the second most powerful figure in the state and the constitutional successor to the President.

From this influential position, he could, at any moment, leverage his control over the legislative power to impede the government’s actions. It is challenging to predict the ultimate trajectory of this rivalry between the two leaders of the ruling party. Should they fail to exercise caution, this situation risks negatively impacting the party’s cohesion. Indeed, with these two prominent figures in open conflict, one might question whether Pastef is prematurely undermining its own stability.

It is evident that since their rise to power, Ousmane Sonko has been visibly eager to assume the presidency from Bassirou Diomaye Faye, whom he propelled into the role under circumstances that are widely understood (Sonko was deemed ineligible in May 2023 following an appeal, preventing his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election) to effectively be the ‘kingmaker’.

All signs suggest that by entering into open conflict with the Head of State today, he not only intends to avoid remaining in the latter’s shadow but also believes he possesses sufficient political leverage to pursue his presidential ambitions, overcoming the judicial hurdle he faced in 2024.

A political standoff: ‘I hold you, you hold me’

This ambition is further fueled by the new Electoral Code, which was smoothly adopted on May 12. This revision aimed to clarify cases of ineligibility and curb the possibility of disqualifying candidates for political reasons. However, the opposition viewed it as a means to open the door for both Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye to run.

While the formidable opponent of former President Macky Sall can still boast significant popularity within the party he founded, his eligibility for the next presidential election, anticipated in March 2029, is likely to remain contentious until the Constitutional Council issues its definitive ruling on the matter.

Therefore, if the rivalry between these two influential personalities at the highest levels of government intensifies, it could devolve into a perilous political standoff, boding ill for Senegal. It could be even more damaging for Pastef, which might be outmaneuvered by a third contender in upcoming elections, or face a protest vote from the Senegalese electorate, whose discerning nature is well-known.

In the interim, we hope that reason will prevail in the paramount interest of the nation, ensuring that Senegal does not become a casualty of the rivalries between these two political leaders who once promised a transformative new era of governance.