During a recent online discussion, researcher Joshua Z. Walker voiced significant apprehension regarding the protracted presence of the M23 rebel group in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Speaking on a Space hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, Walker, who serves as an Associate Fellow for the Africa program at Chatham House and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s (NYU) Center on International Cooperation, offered a cautious yet stark assessment of the ongoing peace process between the DRC and Rwanda.

Initially downplaying any prophetic abilities, Walker then presented two potential outcomes should Washington’s patience wane concerning the stalled diplomatic efforts. His first hypothesis suggested a regression to the state of affairs that existed prior to the substantial American intervention in 2025, implying a resurgence of previous regional dynamics. The second, more troubling scenario, posited a continuation of the current stalemate.

It is this second possibility that deeply concerns the expert. Walker articulated that the M23’s persistent occupation of parts of eastern Congo leads to their deeper entrenchment with each passing day. He emphasized that the mere passage of time acts as a critical exacerbating factor, warning that “even if there is no M23 withdrawal, every day that passes that the M23 continues to occupy parts of eastern Congo, they become more entrenched.”

According to Walker, the most significant fear is that this temporal progression will inevitably lead to a situation where, de facto, a segment of the DRC remains outside government control. This sustained presence of the M23 in eastern DRC underscores a critical security challenge and highlights the urgent need for a breakthrough in the regional peace initiatives.