The Gabonese public debt continues its upward trend, with projections indicating it will reach 94.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, according to budget forecasts discussed in Libreville. This trajectory, initiated during the transitional presidency and later reaffirmed under President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, places the country dangerously close to the 70% GDP ceiling set by the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) convergence criteria.

Rising debt raises concerns among financial partners

The pace of Gabon’s debt accumulation stands in stark contrast to the fiscal discipline commitments made to multilateral lenders. Despite robust oil revenues and recovering manganese prices—of which Gabon is a top global producer—the state struggles to allocate sufficient funds for debt reduction. The growing burden of debt servicing is increasingly crowding out investments in critical infrastructure and social services.

This situation has unfolded against a backdrop of suspended disbursements under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility in early 2024, citing governance irregularities and expenditure overruns. Without an active IMF program, Libreville has turned to regional public bond markets and bilateral financing, both of which carry higher interest rates than concessional lending windows.

A high-stakes gamble on public spending-led growth

Since assuming office in August 2023, following the ousting of former President Ali Bongo Ondimba, General Oligui Nguema has positioned public procurement as a cornerstone of political legitimacy. Ambitious infrastructure projects, social facility upgrades, and housing initiatives have surged, with a clear intent to signal a break from past management practices. However, this spending spree has deepened the primary deficit and led to mounting arrears owed to state contractors.

Official budget documents reveal a projected debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 73% in 2024, escalating to 94.3% by 2027. Such a rapid accumulation over three years underscores an increasing reliance on borrowed funds rather than domestic revenue mobilization. Gabon’s historically low tax-to-GDP ratio remains a persistent point of contention with technical partners.

Budget sovereignty and investor confidence at stake

For Gabon, a sovereign issuer with multiple eurobond listings, credit rating trends are a critical concern. Rating agencies have repeatedly adjusted the country’s outlook, reflecting unease over fiscal uncertainty and refinancing capacity for upcoming maturities. Sustained debt levels above 90% of GDP risk pushing external borrowing costs higher and shrinking the investor base willing to participate in future bond issuances.

Within the CEMAC bloc, Gabon’s situation is closely monitored, as regional partners fear a single deviation could destabilize the shared foreign exchange reserves managed by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Monetary authorities have repeatedly emphasized the need for a return to sustainable debt levels, especially as neighboring Chad, the Republic of the Congo, and Cameroon also grapple with elevated debt burdens.

The political credibility of the projected debt path remains a key question. The formal transition to a civilian constitutional framework, finalized through a November 2024 referendum and April 2025 presidential election, theoretically paves the way for renewed financial cooperation. Yet, for this to materialize, the Gabonese government must pair its infrastructure ambitions with a credible consolidation plan—otherwise, public debt could evolve into a long-term structural vulnerability for the national economy.