The AFC/M23 rebellion, which maintains control over extensive areas within North Kivu and South Kivu provinces in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, continues to receive substantial military support from the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF). This backing extends to their ongoing operations and efforts to solidify their strategic positions across the region’s battlegrounds, a persistent finding detailed by United Nations experts.

Recent assessments by UN experts have meticulously documented the enduring presence of RDF personnel and the consistent arrival of reinforcements in both North Kivu and South Kivu. These findings also highlight the RDF’s active engagement across various fronts, leveraging advanced military technologies and equipment, including sophisticated aerial warfare capabilities. Operational support provided by the RDF to the AFC/M23 has been robust, demonstrating an ability to rapidly deploy highly specialized assets such as drones, electronic warfare tools, and special forces units.

Furthermore, these assessments reveal that the RDF has conducted military operations in regions where no presence of the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda) had been reported, notably in Uvira. This particular detail significantly undermines Kigali’s justification for its military intervention, which it has consistently framed as legitimate self-defense measures.

By December 2025, the deployment of RDF forces in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo was conservatively estimated at 8,000 to 10,000 troops in South Kivu and 6,000 to 8,000 in North Kivu. Subsequent observations have shown no significant indications of withdrawal; instead, troop movements have primarily involved rotations and the introduction of new reinforcements.

As previously observed, the RDF has consistently occupied critical forward positions, initiated offensives, and established operational corridors to benefit the M23. United Nations experts have noted that every M23 combat unit operates under the direct supervision and support of the RDF.

“RDF personnel were integrated into mixed battalions alongside M23 elements, notably including commando units originating from Bigogwe, Rubavu, and Cyangugu. To evade detection, RDF members deployed in the Democratic Republic of Congo have recently begun to adopt M23 uniforms. For similar tactical reasons, troop movements are predominantly executed under the cover of night,” UN experts have detailed.

These critical insights from United Nations experts emerge amidst a backdrop of escalating security and humanitarian crises in eastern DRC, despite the existence of the Washington Accord and numerous evaluation meetings. Tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali remain high, with both sides offering divergent interpretations of the Washington Accord’s provisions, severely complicating its implementation a year after its ministerial signing.

Similarly, the Doha process, facilitated by the State of Qatar, has seen multiple rounds of discussions without significant progress. Kinshasa and the Rwanda-backed Alliance du Fleuve Congo (AFC)/M23 rebellion have struggled to bridge their fundamental disagreements. The subsequent Montreux phase in Switzerland, intended to inject new momentum into these diplomatic efforts, also failed to yield the desired outcomes. Commitments from this negotiation stage have not been fully honored, and the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East has regrettably pushed this critical issue to the background, further impeding mediation efforts.