Had Ousmane Sonko displayed greater foresight, the National Assembly would have been his ideal sanctuary from the outset, allowing him to quietly prepare for the 2029 elections. This strategic positioning would have been particularly potent after his party, Pastef, secured an overwhelming victory in the November 2024 parliamentary polls.

Sonko, it seems, believed that the most effective way to ensure Diomaye Faye would not grow too fond of the presidential office was to maintain a direct, vigilant oversight. He aimed to share executive powers, with Diomaye Faye initially accepting a more ceremonial role, akin to a constitutional monarch. However, as Machiavelli famously warned, power invariably transforms, and those who elevate others to kingship often hasten their own downfall.

The inevitable unraveling

Senegal’s presidential system inherently centralizes authority, leaving little significant room for any figure outside the head of state. Even an exceptionally influential Prime Minister ultimately remains a primus inter pares, or first among equals, and nothing more.

Ousmane Sonko soon found himself constrained within the government. A pivotal moment arrived on July 1, 2025, when the Supreme Court upheld the ruling that rendered him ineligible for the 2029 presidential race. This decision significantly clouded Sonko’s political prospects. Furthermore, he perceived a lack of concern from President Diomaye Faye regarding his mounting challenges. Consequently, Sonko’s ever-present political instinct reasserted itself. As conventional institutional avenues progressively closed, he opted to regain momentum through grassroots mobilization, occasionally pushing the boundaries of political norms. This included the controversial circumstances surrounding his assumption of a seat in the National Assembly. This legislative body now serves as his stronghold, secured by sheer numbers, and seemingly impervious to accusations of malfeasance from Senegal’s diminished opposition. Only President Diomaye Faye possesses the authority to refer the legality of Sonko’s Assembly entry to the Constitutional Council, a step he has, for the moment, chosen not to take.

Diomaye Faye’s calculated inaction

In the historic land of Lat Dior Diop, the revered king of Cayor and a key figure in Senegal’s 19th-century resistance against colonial encroachment, political dynamics are rarely straightforward. Merely citing constitutional articles and subsequent laws offers an incomplete picture of the current high-stakes game. As Senegal’s national motto might be paraphrased, there are two key players and one ultimate objective. President Diomaye Faye, the astute strategist, and Ousmane Sonko, the relentless “Djambar” or hurricane, are these two protagonists. Their shared, yet divergent, goal is the 2029 presidential election.

Each player wields distinct advantages: President Bassirou Diomaye Faye commands the state institutions and the force of law. Ousmane Sonko, conversely, relies on the unwavering strength of his dedicated partisans, organized within a highly effective party machine, and an increasing willingness to challenge established norms.

Leveraging strategic advantages

Ousmane Sonko undeniably controls a significant power base within the National Assembly. However, the efficacy of this position is not without vulnerabilities. These include the contentious nature of his entry into the Assembly, the persistent threat of its dissolution, and the overarching specter of potential malfeasance, should the Constitutional Council deem his reintroduction as a deputy illegal following a presidential referral.

Meanwhile, President Diomaye Faye appears to be exercising patience. Having seemingly neutralized the immediate challenge posed by Sonko’s presence in the executive, he is now focused, alongside his new Prime Minister Ahmadou Al Aminou Lô, on stabilizing Senegal’s economic affairs and engaging with international financial institutions. He undoubtedly recognizes that a direct confrontation is inevitable, and he is reportedly preparing for it with a robust circle of advisors.