The return of Shell to Gabon marks a significant milestone for the country’s oil industry. A decade after its exit, the Anglo-Dutch energy giant is set to re-enter Gabon’s sedimentary basin, as Libreville strives to reverse the steady decline in its hydrocarbon output. This announcement, made amid ongoing political reforms, underscores the government’s commitment to reassuring global investors.

Shell withdrew from Gabon in 2016, divesting its onshore assets to Assala Energy—a subsidiary then controlled by the Carlyle Group. The deal, valued at hundreds of millions of dollars, reflected the company’s global portfolio rationalization, as it prioritized higher-yield projects like liquefied natural gas and deepwater ventures. The departure left a notable gap, with Gabon losing one of its long-standing operators.

Political momentum reshaping Gabon’s oil landscape

Shell’s return coincides with the presidency of Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, who assumed office following the August 2023 transition and was later confirmed by elections. Over recent months, Gabonese authorities have intensified efforts to make the upstream sector more appealing. Key initiatives include revising the hydrocarbons code, restarting licensing rounds, and engaging in bilateral talks with major oil firms. The goal? To reverse the downward trend in production, currently hovering around 200,000 barrels per day—far below the historic highs of the late 1990s.

For Shell, this decision carries strategic weight. Having previously divested mature assets deemed non-strategic, the company is now recalibrating its African strategy. The scarcity of large onshore discoveries, rising deepwater exploration costs, and the search for medium-term oil growth drivers are reshaping the calculus for major players. Gabon’s basin, with its remaining deep offshore and pre-salt prospects, is regaining appeal in this context.

Reviving Gabon’s declining oil output

Oil remains Gabon’s top foreign exchange earner, typically accounting for over 40% of government revenue and nearly 80% of exports. However, the gradual depletion of mature fields, combined with cautious investment over recent years, has weakened this foundation. Authorities are banking on the return of industry leaders to spur exploration and extend the lifespan of existing reserves.

Several international players have already signaled renewed interest in Gabon. The national oil company, Gabon Oil Company (GOC), is playing a growing role in managing assets as contracts expire or are renegotiated. Shell’s return could unfold in collaboration with other operators already active in the country, such as Perenco, TotalEnergies, and BW Energy, whose offshore positions have strengthened in recent years.

Strategic return with details yet to unfold

The specifics of Shell’s redeployment remain unclear: targeted blocks, investment timelines, financial commitments, and contractual models. The choice between onshore or deep offshore assets will dictate the scale of its comeback. A deep offshore presence could require commitments of several hundred million dollars, whereas a focus on mature fields would likely involve a more cautious, production-optimization approach.

Beyond Shell’s case, Gabon’s new oil policy credibility is on the line. The government’s ability to turn pledges into concrete investments—amid intense competition from Nigeria, Angola, Namibia, and Senegal for major oil firms’ capital—will shape the sector’s trajectory in the coming decade. The Anglo-Dutch company’s return serves as a critical test for the new administration.