Cameroon has placed the renewal of its partnership with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the heart of its next three-year budget plan. The Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document for 2027-2029, submitted to Parliament by the Ministry of Finance during the Budget Orientation Debate, anticipates 300 billion FCFA in support tied to a new program with the Bretton Woods institution. This amount represents nearly 9.5% of the projected financing needs for 2027, estimated at 3,161.5 billion FCFA.

The stakes are high. The previous program, signed in 2021 and extended by one year, concluded in July 2025. Since then, Finance Minister Louis Paul Motazé has consistently advocated for a new agreement, as highlighted during the Cabinet Council meeting on October 30, 2025. While the Prime Minister has deferred the formal decision to open negotiations to the Presidency, the inclusion of future IMF support in the three-year framework signals that the executive views this as the primary scenario.

Financing gap hinges on IMF program approval

Cameroon’s projected budget deficit for 2027 is set at 1,018 billion FCFA, compared to 808.5 billion FCFA expected in 2026. Nearly 30% of this deficit would be covered by the conditional support from the IMF agreement. Additional financial obligations, including debt repayments and arrears clearance, total 2,143.5 billion FCFA, with financial debt alone accounting for 1,602.5 billion FCFA.

To balance the books, the government plans to draw 866.7 billion FCFA from project loans, issue 400 billion FCFA in government securities, secure 250 billion FCFA in direct bank financing, and withdraw 131.5 billion FCFA from its reserves at the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). A new external borrowing of up to 1,000 billion FCFA is also envisaged for 2027, following a similar operation planned for 2026. The Medium-Term Document explicitly labels the absence of an IMF agreement as a « major risk » to medium-term public finance sustainability.

Without an IMF program, the Treasury would need to bridge the 300 billion FCFA shortfall through additional borrowing, increased domestic revenue mobilization, or spending adjustments. However, the Ministry of Finance notes the rising cost of domestic financing, persistent high interest rates, and the still-limited depth of the Cemac financial market. These constraints make it difficult to easily replace concessional support with commercial debt.

IMF program as a catalyst for other lenders

Beyond direct IMF disbursements, a program with the Washington-based institution serves as a catalyst for support from the World Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB), the European Union, and bilateral partners. These creditors often tie their assistance to the implementation of reforms and adherence to macroeconomic targets validated under the IMF program.

Between 2017 and 2025, Cameroon secured approximately 2,600 billion FCFA in budgetary support through two IMF programs, including associated contributions from other partners. « We would lose this support if we fail to conclude a new program with the IMF, » warned the Finance Minister. In parallel, Yaoundé aims to broaden its non-oil tax base, modernize revenue collection agencies, and streamline current expenditures in favor of investment.

A regional hurdle before IMF approval

Cameroon’s efforts remain contingent on the broader economic situation within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (Cemac). Within the region, IMF-supported national programs require regional assurances regarding monetary policy, foreign exchange reserve rebuilding, and alignment of member states’ budgetary trajectories.

The review of Cemac’s common policies, originally scheduled for December 2025, has been postponed. Authorities cite insufficient alignment of national fiscal policies with the regional strategy and incomplete agreements on reform-related assurances. While this validation is a prerequisite, it does not automatically guarantee a bilateral agreement between Cameroon and the IMF.

The timing is critical. By embedding 300 billion FCFA in conditional IMF support into its 2027 financing plan, the Cameroonian executive is tying part of its fiscal credibility to the outcome of negotiations. A prolonged delay would force greater reliance on commercial debt or spending cuts, conflicting with the country’s stated investment ambitions.