Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has reaffirmed Chad’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B-’ with a stable outlook, validating the country’s economic strategy under the ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ National Development Plan. This rating upgrade signals strong confidence in Chad’s economic trajectory, driven by robust growth, controlled debt levels, and sustained support from international partners, as highlighted by the Ministry of Finance and Economy.

Growth forecasts revised upward: from 3.6% to 5.2%

Since 2023, Chad’s economy has shown steady recovery, fueled by rising hydrocarbon prices and a rebound in services. S&P’s latest projections indicate a 5% real GDP growth for 2025, surpassing earlier estimates of 3.6% (2024-2027). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also upgraded its growth outlook to 5.2% for Chad, reflecting the economy’s resilience.

Key drivers include improved agricultural output and a revival in non-oil sectors, though oil remains central to exports and public revenue. Agriculture and services are boosting domestic demand, strengthening the foundation for sustainable growth.

Debt levels under control: a strategic advantage

Chad has made significant strides in managing its public debt, reducing vulnerabilities that once posed risks. Public debt now stands at around 36% of GDP, a moderate level compared to regional peers. In 2022, Chad became the first country globally to restructure its external debt under the G20 Common Framework.

Concessional debt—loans with favorable repayment terms—now accounts for half of total debt, enhancing investor confidence and freeing up fiscal space. This has enabled the government to pursue major projects outlined in the ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ plan while maintaining fiscal prudence and social spending. Authorities continue to prioritize debt sustainability and strategic investments.

Boosting domestic revenue: a fiscal transformation

Revenue mobilization has seen remarkable progress, a cornerstone of Chad’s ongoing economic reforms. The tax-to-GDP ratio rose from 9.8% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023, according to OECD data, reflecting strong efforts in expanding the tax base and strengthening tax administration.

In 2025, non-oil revenues exceeded expectations, supported by a thriving non-hydrocarbon sector and reforms tied to the IMF program approved in July 2025 (totaling $625.3 million). Digitalization of public finances and governance improvements are further enhancing collection efficiency.

The Ministry of Finance notes that the upgraded rating reinforces Chad’s financial credibility, making it more attractive to private investors and strengthening international partners’ confidence in the reform agenda.

‘Tchad Connexion 2030’: unlocking future potential

The S&P upgrade validates progress across key areas, including economic diversification, revenue mobilization, debt management, and infrastructure development—all priorities under the ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ National Development Plan.

The plan, adopted in May 2025 after the political transition, outlines a bold vision to transform Chad’s economy. It aims to lift 2.6 million people out of poverty by 2030, with GDP growth projected at 8% annually, a 60% increase from current levels. Financing includes $20.5 billion raised in November 2025 from public and private partners in Abu Dhabi.

The plan is structured around four pillars:

• Strategic infrastructure development: energy, water, roads, and telecommunications.
• Social policies strengthening: education, healthcare, vocational training, youth employment, and social inclusion.
• Economic diversification: boosting export-oriented sectors in agriculture, livestock, fishing, hydrocarbons, mining, and tourism with local processing initiatives.
• Business climate improvement: simplifying administrative procedures to attract investment.