In the capital of Niamey, recent events follow a predictable—and alarming—routine. Despite shifts in leadership, the fundamental approach to seizing power in Niger remains unchanged, casting shadows over the nation’s stability. Every alteration at the top seems to stem from the same source: violence and military confrontation.

When gunfire erupted near the presidential palace and military airbase in Niamey, residents reacted with a familiar dread. These disturbances, whether sparked by disgruntled soldiers or internal military divisions, are far from random. They reflect the fragile foundations of governments born from armed takeovers, where power is as fleeting as it is forcefully obtained.

Since the July 2023 overthrow of Niger’s elected leadership, history confirms a grim pattern: regimes established through coups rarely endure without facing similar threats or ultimate collapse. The cycle repeats itself, as military rule proves inherently unstable due to deep-rooted structural and political flaws.

The burden of prolonged transition periods

A three-year transition was initially framed as a temporary phase to stabilize the country, yet time has eroded public trust. What began as a promise of short-term sacrifice for long-term gain has stretched into a period of mounting frustration. When a transitional government overstays its welcome, the absence of a concrete roadmap toward democracy transforms its mission from national renewal into a tactical maneuver to retain authority.

The unyielding security dilemma

The coup leaders in Niger initially justified their intervention by vowing to restore security, a pledge now overshadowed by their own vulnerabilities. Military juntas often struggle to consolidate control, as internal divisions and external pressures chip away at their fragile coalitions. Without addressing the root causes of instability—whether insurgencies, regional conflicts, or public discontent—their grip on power remains tenuous at best.