The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export campaign—with nearly 1 million tonnes already contracted for the 2026-27 harvest—could face disruption due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, warn industry insiders and agricultural commodity traders. To manage stock levels, the Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC) in Abidjan has raised its bonus on additional sales from $0 to $135 per tonne above the forward price, according to sector sources.

The surge in demand reflects a tightening market as the new season approaches on September 1. « We’ve already sold between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming campaign, but we’ve chosen to slow the pace and exercise caution, » reveals a CCC spokesperson.

Cocoa trading firms anticipate exports of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, justifying the CCC’s higher bonus demand. « The market conditions allow them to be more assertive. The Council doesn’t need to lower the bonus to secure contracts, » explains a cocoa trading executive.

Yet this positive momentum may be short-lived if El Niño triggers drought in major cocoa-producing nations like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, potentially disrupting output.

Many exporters argue that the real threat to 2027 production lies not in climate patterns but in neglected plantations and soaring fertilizer costs. « I don’t see El Niño as a major risk. The real issue is the shortage of fertilizers and crop protection products, » states the CEO of an Abidjan-based export firm.