Paul Biya, who has governed Cameroon since 1982 and holds the distinction of being the world’s eldest head of state at 93 years old, has been away from Cameroonian territory for 48 days as of Saturday. He embarked on what an official statement described as a “short private stay in Europe” on June 7, accompanied by his wife, Chantal Biya.

Mr. Biya’s health, a frequent visitor to Geneva, is consistently the subject of widespread speculation, though the government often issues denials.

On June 18, in response to various media reports, Communication Minister René Emmanuel Sadi released a statement refuting claims of the Cameroonian leader’s hospitalization at a Geneva clinic.

For Cameroon’s opposition, this presidential absence highlights a “glaring institutional vacuum,” as articulated by Mamadou Mota, vice-president of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC), in a Friday Facebook post.

“on autopilot”

In mid-July, Patricia Tomaïno Ndam Njoya, president of the Democratic Union of Cameroon (UDC), urged the government to establish “an impartial procedure for determining the temporary or definitive impediment” of the head of state.

James Fame Ndongo, a prominent figure in the presidential party and Minister of Higher Education, dismissed accusations of a power vacuum on Tuesday. He asserted that “wherever he is, the head of state meticulously reviews the files submitted to him by his collaborators.”

These disputes regarding a power vacuum in Cameroon are a recurring theme. The most recent instance occurred in late 2024, when Mr. Biya spent approximately fifty days outside the country.

Another opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), dryly remarked on Friday that the nation was operating “on autopilot.”

These repeated absences, a pattern spanning over two decades, persistently fuel frustration among many Cameroonians concerning the inertia of governance. “People are already exhausted from waiting,” acknowledged Viviane Ondoua Biwolé, a professor of public management at the University of Yaoundé.

She elaborated, “Firstly, because the current government has been in power for eight years, which is a record. Secondly, because we are emerging from an election with very mixed results. Many believe that after an election, it is time for renewal.”

Mr. Biya’s re-election to an eighth term in October 2025 led to protests that were violently suppressed, with the government acknowledging “several dozen” fatalities without providing an exact count.

The election outcomes, disputed by the opposition, were met with a degree of reservation by Western diplomatic missions.

Two months later, in his December 31 address to the Nation, Mr. Biya pledged to form a new governmental team “in the coming days.”

However, seven months have passed, and the new government he himself announced remains unformed. This delay is compounded by numerous postponements of municipal and legislative elections, indefinitely extending the terms of incumbent officials.

the post-biya era

Despite these issues, the Cameroonian government has recently initiated certain institutional adjustments, including the replacement of the presidents of both parliamentary chambers in March, followed by the creation of a vice-president position through a constitutional reform in early May.

Yet, nearly three months after the reform, no vice-president has been appointed. This prolonged wait has inevitably fueled speculation.

In June, an individual appeared at the public radio headquarters in Yaoundé to submit a document purporting to be a presidential decree appointing the Vice-President of the Republic.

The fraudulent document bore presidential seals and a signature attributed to Mr. Biya, but it failed to deceive vigilant journalists who did not broadcast it, although it certainly contributed to the ongoing rumors.

These institutional maneuvers only amplify conjecture about the post-Biya era and appear to accelerate the race for his succession, which remains shrouded in dense uncertainty.

“There is, more or less visibly, a crisis at the apex of the state among the president’s inner circle,” asserted Ms. Ondoua Biwolé.

Political scientist Stéphane Akoa corroborated this, stating, “Increasing indiscretions point to quarrels among the various factions within his entourage.”

Behind one of these “factions” looms the influence of Chantal Biya, the First Lady, who is “increasingly involved in state affairs,” with “her name frequently mentioned in decision-making and high-level appointments,” observed Mr. Akoa.

Until a vice-president is named, the responsibility falls to the Senate President, Aboubakary Abdoulaye, to assume leadership in the event of a power vacuum, pending the organization of a presidential election.