An unprecedented shift in US-Morocco relations is reshaping diplomatic dynamics in the Mediterranean and the Maghreb. Washington has intensified engagement with Rabat on multiple fronts—including Western Sahara, economic cooperation, regional security, and now the long-disputed enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. This strategic pivot signals a deeper realignment that could redefine alliances across North Africa and southern Europe.

Since late July, signals from the United States have grown louder in support of Moroccan positions. Beyond the long-standing endorsement of Rabat’s 2020 autonomy plan for Western Sahara—which received formal US recognition during the Trump administration—Washington now appears to be reassessing its stance on Spain’s North African territories, placing Madrid in an increasingly uncertain position.

The timing of this shift coincides with a dramatic surge in migration to Ceuta in late spring. Within 24 hours, nearly 50,000 people crossed into the Spanish enclave, overwhelming local authorities and drawing sharp attention from European leaders. While the causes remain debated, the crisis underscored the fragility of Spain’s border security and reignited longstanding tensions with Morocco over territorial claims.

Western Sahara: A decades-long conflict gains new momentum

The roots of this evolving relationship trace back to December 2020, when the outgoing Trump administration formally recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for the normalization of ties between Rabat and Tel Aviv. That decision marked a historic turning point in the decades-old dispute between Morocco and the Polisario Front, which seeks independence for the territory.

Six years later, Morocco remains committed to preserving this diplomatic victory. A recent symbolic gesture—a highway in Western Sahara named “Donald J. Trump Highway,” linking Tiznit to Dakhla—serves as a clear message to Washington: Rabat expects continued US backing as negotiations on the autonomy plan intensify.

Analysts view this as part of a broader strategy to secure American support until a favorable resolution is reached. “Morocco is playing a long game,” says a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. “The priority is to maintain US backing through a critical phase of international negotiations.”

Economic ties fuel deeper US-Morocco partnership

Diplomatic alignment is not the only driver. In late July, the US ambassador to Morocco traveled to Laâyoune, the heart of Western Sahara, to sign a landmark agreement: a US grant funding a new facility for hydrogen and ammonia production. The project reflects Washington’s growing interest in Moroccan energy initiatives and benefits American firms seeking regional investments.

The partnership is built on multiple pillars: political support for Morocco, economic opportunities for US companies, enhanced security cooperation, and shared strategic views on regional stability, including normalization with Israel. Together, these elements create a powerful framework for long-term collaboration.

Polisario under pressure in Washington

Another concerning development for Polisario supporters has emerged in the US Congress. Two American lawmakers have introduced a proposal to review the possibility of designating the Sahrawi independence movement as a foreign terrorist organization. They also seek to examine alleged links between the Polisario and Iran.

The move reflects a broader geopolitical climate in Washington, where anti-Iran sentiment runs high. While no credible evidence has emerged linking the Polisario to Tehran or Hezbollah, Moroccan diplomats are leveraging this atmosphere to frame the Western Sahara conflict through the lens of US priorities.

“Rabat is skillfully aligning its narrative with American strategic concerns,” notes the analyst. “By portraying the conflict as part of a broader struggle against Iranian influence, Morocco seeks to gain Washington’s unwavering support.”

Ceuta and Melilla: A new flashpoint in transatlantic relations

The most significant shift may be Washington’s evolving position on Ceuta and Melilla. Traditionally regarded as Spanish territories, these enclaves are now the subject of increasingly direct American commentary. Analysts suggest the US may be softening its stance in favor of Morocco’s long-standing claim of sovereignty.

“There are growing indications that the US no longer views Ceuta and Melilla as definitively Spanish,” says the International Crisis Group expert. “This represents a subtle but meaningful departure from previous positions.”

For Morocco, which has long asserted its claim over the two cities, this shift offers a strategic opportunity. For Spain, it introduces a new layer of uncertainty in its alliance with Washington and NATO, upon which Madrid has traditionally relied for regional security.

Ceuta’s migration crisis: a calculated move or spontaneous event?

The timing of the migration surge—occurring just as US-Morocco relations were warming—has fueled speculation. Did Rabat facilitate the influx to pressure Spain over Ceuta? Or was it a spontaneous response to broader regional pressures?

Analysts reject the idea of a fully orchestrated crisis but acknowledge that Morocco quickly capitalized on the situation. “The migration wave was largely spontaneous, but Rabat seized the moment to send a political message,” explains the analyst. “It reminded Madrid—and Washington—that the Ceuta question remains unresolved from Morocco’s perspective.”

Madrid’s balancing act: energy deals and strategic uncertainty

In response, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez traveled to Algiers to strengthen energy ties with Algeria—a key sponsor of the Polisario Front. While seen by some as a counterbalance to Morocco, analysts argue it does not signal a fundamental shift in Spain’s position on Western Sahara, where Madrid has maintained support for Rabat’s autonomy plan.

Rather, the visit reflects a broader effort to diversify alliances amid rising uncertainty. Yet the core challenge remains: if the US aligns more closely with Morocco on Ceuta, Spain could face a fundamental reassessment of its strategic environment.

A potential renegotiation of Ceuta and Melilla?

For decades, the sovereignty of Ceuta and Melilla has been non-negotiable for Spain. But with Washington’s stance potentially evolving, the foundations of this position could be tested. Analysts do not foresee an immediate crisis, but over time, the shifting dynamics may create conditions for renewed political discussions on the status of the two enclaves.

“While a sudden confrontation is unlikely, the groundwork is being laid for Ceuta and Melilla to become part of a larger diplomatic negotiation,” warns the analyst. “The US-Morocco partnership is becoming too strategic to ignore—and Spain may have to adapt.”

Redrawing the map of influence in the Maghreb

What began as a convergence on Western Sahara has expanded into a broader strategic alignment between Washington and Rabat. Morocco is leveraging this partnership to advance its claims on Ceuta and Melilla, while the US prioritizes regional stability, economic access, and counter-Iranian positioning.

Spain, caught between its European obligations and its transatlantic alliance, now faces a more volatile strategic landscape. The long-separate issues of Western Sahara and Ceuta are converging into a single, high-stakes diplomatic battleground—one that will shape the future of North Africa and the western Mediterranean.